Optimal Long-Run Fiscal Policy: Constraints, Preferences and the Resolution of Uncertainty

We construct a computational dynamic stochastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model with uncertain lifetimes and explore the impact of policy stickiness (specifically, a major reform will preclude future reforms for a generation) on optimal long-run fiscal policy. Under such circumstances, entitlement reforms exhaust a valuable option to move in the future. We explore the conditions under which the gain to waiting is large enough to induce optimizing policymakers to delay reforming a suboptimal system. We also allow for the uncertainty to have ARCH characteristics and explore the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the optimality of delayed policy action.

The 2003 Dividend Tax Cuts and the Value of the Firm: An Event Study

The "Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Act of 2003" (JGTRA03) contained a number of significant tax provisions, but the most noteworthy may have been the reduction in dividend tax rates. The political debate over the dividend tax reductions of 2003 took a number of surprising twists and turns. Accordingly, it is likely that the views of market participants concerning the probability of significant dividend tax reduction fluctuated significantly during 2003. In this paper, we use this fact to estimate the effects of dividend tax policy on firm value. We find that firms with higher dividend yields benefited more than other dividend paying firms, a result that, in itself, is consistent with both new and traditional views of dividend taxation. But further evidence points toward the new view and away from the traditional view. We also find that non-dividend-paying firms experienced larger abnormal returns than other firms as the result of the dividend tax cut, and that a similar bonus accrued to firms likely to issue new shares, two results that may appear surprising at first but are consistent with the theory developed in the paper.

LANDSAT-5 orbit adjust maneuver report

The orbit adjust maneuvers performed to raise the LANDSAT 5 spacecraft to mission altitude, synchronize it with the required groundtrack, and properly phase the spacecraft with LANDSAT-4 to provide an 8 day full Earth coverage cycle are described. Maneuver planning and evaluation procedures, data and analysis results for all maneuvers performed to date, the frozen orbit concept, and the phasing requirement between LANDSAT-4 and LANDSAT-5 are also examined

Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy

This paper explores optimal fiscal policy in an overlapping-generations general-equilibrium model under uncertainty and the impact on optimal policy of the introduction of a type of policy stickiness intended to account for the stylized fact that major reforms happen infrequently. In general, our analysis suggests not only that action should not be delayed, but further that action should actually be accelerated. The added realism of restrictions on the frequency of policy changes alters this result in two ways. The prospect of being unable to set policy in the future occasions even more precautionary saving today, if the government acts. However, the government may also choose not to set policy, and its inaction range is very asymmetric. Because the impact of its policies on the current elderly cannot be reversed in the future, the government is much more likely to choose inaction when fiscal tightening is called for. Thus, the optimal policy response over time might best be characterized by great caution in general, but punctuated by occasional periods of apparent irresponsibility.

Dividend Taxes and Firm Valuation: New Evidence

This paper extends our previous analysis (Auerbach and Hassett 2005) of the effects of the "Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Act of 2003" on firm valuation. That paper found that firms with higher dividend yields benefited more than other dividend paying firms, a result that, in itself, is consistent with both new and traditional views of dividend taxation. But further evidence favored the new view. We also found that non-dividend-paying "immature" firms experienced larger abnormal returns than other firms and that a similar bonus accrued to firms likely to issue new shares, two results that are consistent with an anticipated transition to higher dividend payments. Here, we extend our earlier analysis in two ways. First, we consider the impact of the 2004 Presidential election on option prices, to gain further insight into and confirmation of the mechanism through which the 2003 legislation affected firm values. Second, we explore in more detail the determinants of the "immaturity premium" noted above. In contrast to claims in a recent paper by Amromin et al. (2005), we find that the premium is associated with the likelihood of new share issuance, as inferred but not demonstrated in our original analysis.

Taxation and Corporate Investment: The Impact of the 1991 Swedish Tax Reform

In 1990, the government of Sweden introduced a major tax reform to take effect in 1991. The Swedish system prior to the legislation was so complex that the size and magnitude of the likely effects of the reform on incentives to invest were unknown. In this paper, we draw on S”dersten (1989) and Auerbach and Hassett (1992) and derive an expression for the user cost of capital that captures the essential features of the Swedish tax code both before and after the reform. We estimate the model for investment in equipment and find that the responsiveness of Swedish firms to the user cost is quite similar to that found for the U.S. Finally, we employ our model and estimates to assess the effects of the 1991 reform. We find that the impact of the reform on investment is likely to have been minor and had little to do with the contemporaneous sharp drop in investment.